The long series climate contracts settle on, as their publishers post them. Drag across any chart’s history to fit a straight line and project it forward with the year it would cross each threshold; different windows give different projections. Double-click to clear. Hover the series for the value at a point and its ten-year change, a marker for the contract’s quote (click to pin), or a threshold line for the expirations listed at that level.
A climate prediction market is a contract written on a published climate record, settled on the figure its publishing agency posts for a stated month or year. ForecastEx lists these on global average temperature, annual and monthly, on United States temperature, on atmospheric carbon dioxide and on carbon dioxide emissions, on global sea level, on a weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and on population-weighted heating and cooling degree days. Each pays one dollar if the record comes in above the stated threshold, so the price in cents is the market’s probability of that outcome.
Every panel above draws the series as its publisher posts it, with the listed strikes marked at the year each contract settles. Dragging across a chart fits a straight line to the window dragged and projects it forward with the year it would cross each threshold, which describes that window and carries no forecast of the record. Different windows give different answers.
Global temperature comes from the NOAA Climate at a Glance global land and ocean series, carbon dioxide from the Mauna Loa record kept by the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, sea level from the satellite altimetry NOAA and NESDIS publish, and the overturning circulation from the RAPID monitoring project. Each agency posts on its own schedule and revises as it goes, and a contract settles on the figure that agency publishes for the period the contract names. Global temperature contracts are quoted against the preindustrial baseline the exchange uses, which is a fixed offset from the anomaly the agency publishes, and the page carries the offset it applied.
Each contract pays one dollar if the record comes in above its threshold and nothing if it does not. There are no sellers on this exchange. A participant buys Yes or buys No, and the two bids sum to one dollar.