Each dot represents a station. Its colour is the sign of the market-implied median minus the reference for the same day, and its size is the gap. A grey dot means no listed contracts or no bids yet. The market has sat below the NWS forecast on highs most days so far, so most dots are blue and the size is what varies.
running warmer running cooler
The pale field is the reference level, cool blues to warm reds, interpolated between the listed stations. It is derived here; the official NWS field is the NDFD grid.
On the day-ahead views it is the NWS forecast. On the current-day views it is what the day is now expected to reach, which is what the station has already recorded taken with the NWS forecast for the hours left. A forecast starts at the current hour, so once the morning has set the day’s low the forecast alone no longer holds it.
Philadelphia 88° (−5) means 88°, five degrees below the reference. Labels move out of each other’s way and never cover another station’s dot, so where two cities sit close together one of them may go unlabelled. Its dot is still there and still carries its numbers on hover.
Each dot shows where the exchange’s market-implied median sits against the National Weather Service forecast for the same day with a bias removed from the National Weather Service.
How these contracts work and how they settle →
These stations settle in Celsius, so their labels carry the unit. They take the same encoding as the map above; a grey dot means the view has no value for that station, because US government feeds carry observations everywhere but forecasts only for the United States and, through the Blend of Models, Canada. Each station is named with its observed reading so far and, where the exchange has a listed board for it, the market’s implied median for the day being shown. With no government forecast to compare against, those two numbers are the whole picture abroad. Click a station for its chart.
Every station on one day, each forecast beside the temperature the station recorded. The colour is the error, so a system that ran warm reads as a red stripe down its column and a station nobody caught reads as a red row. The margins are mean absolute error, the right column per station and the bottom row per system. Pick either end of the day and any of the last seven scored days.
How each tool has scored over the last week is on the accuracy page.