Generation, price and revenue as the Energy Information Administration publishes them, with the listed strikes drawn at the month or year each contract settles. Drag across a chart’s history to fit a straight line and project it forward; double-click to clear. Hover the series for the value at a point, or a marker for the contract’s quote; click a marker to open that contract on IBKR.
An energy prediction market on this page is a contract written on a figure the Energy Information Administration publishes, settled on the value in the agency’s own release for the stated month or year. ForecastEx lists these on the share of United States electricity generated from wind, from solar, from nuclear and from hydroelectric sources, on total generation and on renewable generation, on average electricity prices by sector, and on electricity generation sales revenue in California, New York and Texas. Alongside them sit contracts on milestones in fusion energy development, among them first plasma and plant operation. Each pays one dollar if its outcome happens.
Each panel above carries the agency’s series with the listed strikes drawn at the month or year the contract settles, so the level a contract is written at can be read against the record that will settle it. Contracts on coal, natural gas and oil are on the fossil fuels page.
Every series here is the Energy Information Administration’s own, and a contract settles on the value in the agency’s release for the month or year it names. The agency publishes a month well after that month ends and revises earlier months as more complete data arrives, so a contract on a recent month is priced against a figure that has not been published yet. Generation shares are the percentage of total United States generation a source supplied, which moves with demand as well as with what is built.
Each contract pays one dollar if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the price in cents is the market’s probability of that outcome. There are no sellers on this exchange. A participant buys Yes or buys No, and the two bids sum to one dollar.